Evol Ecol Res 14: 1-29 (2012)     Full PDF if your library subscribes.

Evolution of dispersal in American pika (Ochotona princeps) metapopulations

Anne Seppänen¹, Kalle Parvinen¹ and John D. Nagy^2,3

¹Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turku, Turku, Finland, ²Department of Life Science, Scottsdale Community College, Scottsdale, Arizona, USA and ³School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Correspondence: Anne Seppänen, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turku, FIN-20014 Turku, Finland.
e-mail: anne.seppanen@utu.fi

ABSTRACT

Question: How might global climate change affect American pika (Ochotona princeps) metapopulation dynamics in the Great Basin, and how would such effects impact evolutionary dynamics of dispersal?

Mathematical methods: A structured, semi-discrete, mechanistic metapopulation model in which patch age is the structuring variable. We apply adaptive dynamics for the evolutionary analysis and derive an invasion fitness proxy for this model setting.

Key assumptions: Global climate change potentially alters the probability of patch extinction, dispersal costs, mortality, and fecundity. Births and immigration occur at discrete points in time. Deaths and emigration occur continuously over time. We model ‘average’ patch dynamics.

Results: Potentially viable metapopulations nevertheless can be destined for extinction via evolutionary suicide driven by climatic forcing. Specifically, selection can drive down dispersal rates in viable metapopulations, degrading colonization rates and increasing extinction rates to the point where the metapopulation crashes.

Conclusions: Exclusive reliance on ecological dynamics without this evolutionary perspective would miss the phenomenon identified here. This result arises in realistic ranges of parameters and therefore generates a testable hypothesis with potential applications to long-term metapopulation sustainability.

Keywords: adaptive dynamics, climate change, dispersal, evolutionary suicide, metapopulation, Ochotona princeps.

DOWNLOAD A FREE, FULL PDF COPY
IF you are connected using the IP of a subscribing institution (library, laboratory, etc.)
or through its VPN.

 

        © 2012 Anne Seppänen. All EER articles are copyrighted by their authors. All authors endorse, permit and license Evolutionary Ecology Ltd. to grant its subscribing institutions/libraries the copying privileges specified below without additional consideration or payment to them or to Evolutionary Ecology, Ltd. These endorsements, in writing, are on file in the office of Evolutionary Ecology, Ltd. Consult authors for permission to use any portion of their work in derivative works, compilations or to distribute their work in any commercial manner.

       Subscribing institutions/libraries may grant individuals the privilege of making a single copy of an EER article for non-commercial educational or non-commercial research purposes. Subscribing institutions/libraries may also use articles for non-commercial educational purposes by making any number of copies for course packs or course reserve collections. Subscribing institutions/libraries may also loan single copies of articles to non-commercial libraries for educational purposes.

       All copies of abstracts and articles must preserve their copyright notice without modification.